Nautico Recife 0–4 Confiança: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Confiança

Rafael Vila 61', 45+4'

Nirley 48'

Willians Santana 5'

8/7/2021

Serie B · Round 16Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nautico Recife44%

×Draw28%

Confiança28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchConfiança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.99

Nautico Recife

1.30

Confiança

0.99

Nautico Recife creates 31% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 32 away

1.32

creates per match

0.78

1.20

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.32

Confiança

0.78

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Confiança

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Confiança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

72%

Nautico Recife or Confiança

72%

Draw or Confiança

56%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

20%

Confiança wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

73%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

37%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

14%

Confiança 1+ goals

63%

Confiança 2+ goals

26%

Confiança 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

61%

Confiança (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 74 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Confiança defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Confiança attack 0.78 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

44%

level

28%

Confiança scores more

28%

Nautico Recife at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Michael

Confiança · G

8.5

Match Events

5'

20'

36'

43'

45+4'

Rafael Vila↳ Jhemerson

46'

Matheus Carvalho← Marciel

46'

Rafinha← Breno

48'

Nirley

51'

Serginho

56'

Neto Berola← Willians Santana

61'

Rafael Vila↳ Neto Berola

65'

Djavan← Rhaldney

66'

Williams Bahia← Thassio

66'

Giovanny← Iago Dias

82'

João Paulo

82'

Álvaro← Serginho

82'

Vinicius Santana← Ítalo Melo

83'

Lucas Sampaio← João Paulo

89'

90'

90+5'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoConfiança

Overview

67%Possession33%

26Total Shots9

16Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

26Total Shots9

5On Target5

14Off Target2

7Blocked2

15Inside Box5

11Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

496Total Passes263

431Accurate Passes164

87%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides5