Confiança 0–0 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Confiança

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nautico Recife

11/9/2021

Serie B · Round 35Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Confiança45%

×Draw28%

Nautico Recife27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConfiançaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.95

Confiança

1.31

Nautico Recife

0.95

Confiança creates 38% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 77 away

1.06

creates per match

0.74

1.16

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Confiança

1.06

Nautico Recife

0.74

allows per match

Confiança

1.16

Nautico Recife

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Confiança+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Confiança ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Confiança or draw

73%

Confiança or Nautico Recife

72%

Draw or Nautico Recife

55%

Winning margin

Confiança wins by 2+

21%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Confiança 1+ goals

73%

Confiança 2+ goals

38%

Confiança 3+ goals

14%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

61%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

25%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Confiança (draw refunded)

62%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Confiança at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Confiança attack 1.06 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Confiança defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Confiança scores more

45%

level

28%

Nautico Recife scores more

27%

Confiança at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Confiança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Camutanga

Nautico Recife · D

8.6

Match Events

30'

Djavan

46'

Lucas Sampaio← João Paulo

46'

Giovanny← Jailson

53'

Rafael Vila

59'

Neto Berola← Willians Santana

63'

Luan← Adalberto

65'

Madison

73'

Juninho Carpina← Djavan

73'

Luiz Henrique← Matheus Jesus

74'

G. Paiva← Alvaro

81'

Gedeílson← Bocão

81'

Adriano← Rafael Vila

83'

LuanNeves← Guilherme Nunes

84'

Adriano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ConfiançaNautico

Overview

41%Possession59%

19Total Shots13

6Corners5

19Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots13

3On Target1

7Off Target7

9Blocked5

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

290Total Passes435

210Accurate Passes344

72%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4