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Nautico Recife vs Confiança — Serie B 2026

Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Confiança
Confiança
Reis 15'
10/3/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 13Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nautico Recife44%
×Draw28%
Confiança28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nautico Recife
1.30
Confiança
0.99

Nautico Recife creates 31% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 32 away

creates per match

Nautico Recife
1.32
Confiança
0.78

allows per match

Nautico Recife
1.20
Confiança
1.28

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par
Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Confiança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw
72%
Nautico Recife or Confiança
72%
Draw or Confiança
56%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+
20%
Confiança wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals
73%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
37%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
14%
Confiança 1+ goals
63%
Confiança 2+ goals
26%
Confiança 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
61%
Confiança (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 74 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Confiança defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Confiança attack 0.78 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nautico Recife scores more
44%
level
28%
Confiança scores more
28%

Nautico Recife at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
ReisConfiançaConfiança · M
8.5

Match Events

4'
Matheus Mancini
10'
Madison
15'
Reis
45'
Renan Gorne
46'
Matheus Trindade← Wagner
46'
Dudu← Dadá Belmonte
51'
Rafael Ribeiro
65'
Salatiel Júnior← Thiago
69'
Danilo Pires← Guilherme Castilho
69'
Mikael← Renan Gorne
71'
Erick← Josa
73'
Luan← Rafael Vila
77'
Marcelinho← Silva
86'
Ruy← Jean Carlos
90'
Erick Arruda
90'
Caíque Sá

Possession

67%Nautico

Shots

7Nautico

Pass accuracy

55%Nautico

Statistics

NauticoConfiança
Overview
67%Possession33%
7Total Shots15
1Corners3
15Fouls18
Shots
7Total Shots15
2On Target5
3Off Target9
2Blocked1
3Inside Box8
4Outside Box7
Passing
67%Possession33%
562Total Passes276
471Accurate Passes191
84%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Confiança

Confiança beat Nautico Recife 1-0 in Serie B on October 3, 2020.

Goals: Reis (15').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (67%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Aflitos in Recife.