Nautico Recife 2–1 Brusque: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brusque

Paulo Sergio 89' (pen)

Helio Borges 33'

Joao Maistro 75' (OG)

10/11/2025

Serie C · Second Stage - 6Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nautico Recife45%

×Draw31%

Brusque25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.77

Nautico Recife

1.15

Brusque

0.77

Nautico Recife creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

1.15

creates per match

1.08

0.46

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.15

Brusque

1.08

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.46

Brusque

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

75%

Nautico Recife or Brusque

69%

Draw or Brusque

55%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

19%

Brusque wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

68%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

32%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

11%

Brusque 1+ goals

54%

Brusque 2+ goals

18%

Brusque 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

65%

Brusque (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Brusque away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.15 + Brusque defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Brusque attack 1.08 + Nautico Recife defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

45%

level

31%

Brusque scores more

25%

Nautico Recife at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

46'

46'

48'

60'

Joao Maistro← Carlinhos

69'

Igor Bolt← Helio Borges

69'

Paulo Sergio← Bruno Mezenga

70'

75'

Thomaz← Mateus Pivo

75'

Joao MaistroOwn goal

80'

Lucas Cardoso← Samuel

80'

O. Otusanya← Wenderson

81'

Roberto Rosa← Bernardo

82'

89'

Paulo SergioPenalty

90+3'

Arnaldo

90+1'

Robinho← Jean Mangabeira

90+1'

Douglas Oliveira← U. Clinton

Nautico

Brusque

1

Nogueira

2

Alemao

4

Torres

9

▼

Olavio

17

▼

Clinton

23

Pira

27

Mathias

30

▼

Mangabeir

50

▼

Bernardo

66

Ruan

97

▼

19

2

25

33

▼

Carlinhos

23

Fernandes

41

▼

Samuel

22

▼

Wenderson

44

Vitinho

7

Vinicius

11

⚽

▼

Borges

80

▼

Mezenga

Manager: Hélio dos Anjos

60'▲Joao Maistro←▼Carlinhos

69'▲Igor Bolt←▼Helio Borges

69'▲Paulo Sergio←▼Bruno Mezenga

80'▲Lucas Cardoso←▼Samuel

80'▲O. Otusanya←▼Wenderson

Nautico Recife substitutes

1Wellerson17Ytalo40Maistro13Indio8Guilherme21Redaelli10Cardoso12Kelvin15Kayon70Bolt9Sergio34Otusanya

Manager: Filipe Gouveia

46'▲Biel Fonseca←▼Olavio

75'▲Thomaz←▼Mateus Pivo

81'▲Roberto Rosa←▼Bernardo

90+1'▲Robinho←▼Jean Mangabeira

90+1'▲Douglas Oliveira←▼U. Clinton

Brusque substitutes

22Luiz21Lucas7Fonseca28Ribeiro10Robinho60Santos16Rosa80Danielzinho18Thomaz99Robinho20Oliveira

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Brusque

Nautico Recife beat Brusque 2-1 in Serie C on October 11, 2025.

Goals: Helio Borges (33'), Joao Maistro (75' o.g.), Paulo Sergio (89' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho in Recife.

Nautico Recife vs Brusque — Serie C 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Brusque