Nautico Recife 3–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Botafogo SP

Rhaldney 45+5'

Jean Carlos 35'

Erick 21'

Wellington 89' (pen)

9/13/2020

Serie B · Round 9Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Nautico Recife57%

×Draw26%

Botafogo SP17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.69

Nautico Recife

1.50

Botafogo SP

0.69

Nautico Recife creates 117% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

1.62

creates per match

0.80

0.58

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.62

Botafogo SP

0.80

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.58

Botafogo SP

1.37

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Nautico Recife-0.48scores less

Botafogo SP-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

83%

Nautico Recife or Botafogo SP

74%

Draw or Botafogo SP

43%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

30%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

78%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

44%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

19%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

50%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

15%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

77%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.58 · 7 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.62 + Botafogo SP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Botafogo SP attack 0.80 + Nautico Recife defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

57%

level

26%

Botafogo SP scores more

17%

Nautico Recife at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jefferson

Nautico Recife · G

8.0

Match Events

21'

Erick↳ Jean Carlos

23'

Gilson

35'

Jean Carlos↳ Jhonnatan

38'

40'

41'

45+5'

46'

Naldo← Elicarlos

61'

Guilherme Romão← Gilson

64'

Djavan← Rhaldney

67'

Erick Arruda

67'

Paulo Henrique← Matheus Anjos

70'

Dadá Belmonte← Jean Carlos

70'

Josa← Jhonnatan

82'

Wagner← Erick

82'

Salatiel Júnior← G. Paiva

82'

Matheus Ferreira← Victor Bolt

89'

WellingtonPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoBotafogo

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots20

1Corners5

22Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots20

4On Target8

2Off Target7

3Blocked5

1Inside Box16

8Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

342Total Passes331

257Accurate Passes262

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls21

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2