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Náuas vs Rio Branco — League #520 2026

Náuas
Náuas
FT
0 – 4
Rio Branco
Rio Branco
8/21/2021League #520League #520 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Náuas9%
×Draw16%
Rio Branco76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náuas
0.68
Rio Branco
2.42

Rio Branco creates 256% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Náuas
0.55
Rio Branco
2.40

allows per match

Náuas
2.45
Rio Branco
0.80

finishing

Náuas+0.00on par
Rio Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náuas ↓

Rio Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Náuas or draw
24%
Náuas or Rio Branco
84%
Draw or Rio Branco
91%

Winning margin

Náuas wins by 2+
2%
Rio Branco wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Náuas 1+ goals
49%
Náuas 2+ goals
15%
Náuas 3+ goals
3%
Rio Branco 1+ goals
91%
Rio Branco 2+ goals
69%
Rio Branco 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Náuas (draw refunded)
10%
Rio Branco (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náuas at home — creates 0.55, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Rio Branco away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náuas attack 0.55 + Rio Branco defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Rio Branco attack 2.40 + Náuas defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Náuas scores more
9%
level
16%
Rio Branco scores more
76%

Rio Branco at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Rio Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Náuas vs Rio Branco

Rio Branco beat Náuas 4-0 in League #520 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes in Rio Branco, Acre.