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Natters vs Union Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Natters
Natters
FT
6 – 3
Union Innsbruck
Union Innsbruck
10/10/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 11Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Natters55%
×Draw19%
Union Innsbruck26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Natters
2.46
Union Innsbruck
1.65

Natters creates 49% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Natters
1.93
Union Innsbruck
1.45

allows per match

Natters
1.84
Union Innsbruck
2.98

finishing

Natters+0.00on par
Union Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

Union Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Natters or draw
74%
Natters or Union Innsbruck
81%
Draw or Union Innsbruck
45%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+
35%
Union Innsbruck wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals
91%
Natters 2+ goals
70%
Natters 3+ goals
44%
Union Innsbruck 1+ goals
81%
Union Innsbruck 2+ goals
49%
Union Innsbruck 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)
68%
Union Innsbruck (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

Union Innsbruck away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.98 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + Union Innsbruck defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.46

Union Innsbruck attack 1.45 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Natters scores more
55%
level
19%
Union Innsbruck scores more
26%

Natters at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Natters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Natters 6–3 Union Innsbruck

Natters beat Union Innsbruck 6-3 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Chairman-Arena Natters in Natters.