Natters 2–0 Silz / Mötz: Result & Stats

Natters

FT

2 – 0

Silz / Mötz

9/19/2020

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 8Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Natters43%

×Draw21%

Silz / Mötz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NattersExpected goals in this matchSilz / Mötz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.84

Natters

2.01

Silz / Mötz

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 55 away

1.93

creates per match

1.84

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Natters

1.93

Silz / Mötz

1.84

allows per match

Natters

1.84

Silz / Mötz

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Natters+0.00on par

Silz / Mötz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

Silz / Mötz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Natters or draw

64%

Natters or Silz / Mötz

79%

Draw or Silz / Mötz

57%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+

24%

Silz / Mötz wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals

87%

Natters 2+ goals

59%

Natters 3+ goals

32%

Silz / Mötz 1+ goals

84%

Silz / Mötz 2+ goals

55%

Silz / Mötz 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)

54%

Silz / Mötz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

Silz / Mötz away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + Silz / Mötz defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.01

Silz / Mötz attack 1.84 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Natters scores more

43%

level

21%

Silz / Mötz scores more

36%

Natters at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Natters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Natters vs Silz / Mötz

Natters beat Silz / Mötz 2-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Chairman-Arena Natters in Natters.

Natters vs Silz / Mötz — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Natters vs Silz / Mötz