Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Natters vs Münster — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Natters
Natters
FT
1 – 4
Münster
Münster
9/25/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 11Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Natters51%
×Draw21%
Münster27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Natters
2.11
Münster
1.50

Natters creates 41% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Natters
1.93
Münster
1.17

allows per match

Natters
1.84
Münster
2.30

finishing

Natters+0.00on par
Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Natters or draw
73%
Natters or Münster
79%
Draw or Münster
49%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+
30%
Münster wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals
88%
Natters 2+ goals
62%
Natters 3+ goals
35%
Münster 1+ goals
78%
Münster 2+ goals
44%
Münster 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)
65%
Münster (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

Münster away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + Münster defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

Münster attack 1.17 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Natters scores more
51%
level
21%
Münster scores more
27%

Natters at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Natters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Natters vs Münster

Münster beat Natters 4-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Chairman-Arena Natters in Natters.