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Natters vs Innsbrucker AC — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Natters
Natters
FT
2 – 3
Innsbrucker AC
Innsbrucker AC
8/7/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 3Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Natters38%
×Draw22%
Innsbrucker AC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Natters
1.86
Innsbrucker AC
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 72 away

creates per match

Natters
1.93
Innsbrucker AC
1.97

allows per match

Natters
1.84
Innsbrucker AC
1.79

finishing

Natters+0.00on par
Innsbrucker AC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

Innsbrucker AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Natters or draw
60%
Natters or Innsbrucker AC
78%
Draw or Innsbrucker AC
62%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+
20%
Innsbrucker AC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals
84%
Natters 2+ goals
55%
Natters 3+ goals
28%
Innsbrucker AC 1+ goals
85%
Innsbrucker AC 2+ goals
57%
Innsbrucker AC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)
49%
Innsbrucker AC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

Innsbrucker AC away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.79 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + Innsbrucker AC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Innsbrucker AC attack 1.97 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Natters scores more
38%
level
22%
Innsbrucker AC scores more
40%

Innsbrucker AC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Innsbrucker AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Natters 2–3 Innsbrucker AC

Innsbrucker AC beat Natters 3-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Chairman-Arena Natters in Natters.