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Nations vs Vision — Premier League 2019

Nations
Nations
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vision
Vision
10/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nations57%
×Draw27%
Vision16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nations
1.41
Vision
0.59

Nations creates 139% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Nations
1.43
Vision
0.61

allows per match

Nations
0.57
Vision
1.39

finishing

Nations+0.00on par
Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Vision →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nations or draw
84%
Nations or Vision
73%
Draw or Vision
43%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+
29%
Vision wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals
76%
Nations 2+ goals
41%
Nations 3+ goals
17%
Vision 1+ goals
45%
Vision 2+ goals
12%
Vision 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)
79%
Vision (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Vision away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Vision defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vision attack 0.61 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nations scores more
57%
level
27%
Vision scores more
16%

Nations at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nations vs Vision

Nations beat Vision 3-0 in Premier League on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex in Abrankese.