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Nations vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Nations
Nations
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Medeama
Medeama
1/30/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Kwame Kyei sports complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nations51%
×Draw29%
Medeama20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nations
1.31
Medeama
0.71

Nations creates 85% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Nations
1.43
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Nations
0.57
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Nations+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nations or draw
80%
Nations or Medeama
71%
Draw or Medeama
49%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+
24%
Medeama wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals
73%
Nations 2+ goals
38%
Nations 3+ goals
14%
Medeama 1+ goals
51%
Medeama 2+ goals
16%
Medeama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)
72%
Medeama (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Medeama attack 0.85 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nations scores more
51%
level
29%
Medeama scores more
20%

Nations at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nations 2–1 Medeama

Nations beat Medeama 2-1 in Premier League on January 30, 2026.

The match was played at Kwame Kyei sports complex in Abrankese.