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Nations vs Hohoe United — Premier League 2019

Nations
Nations
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hohoe United
Hohoe United
11/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Kwame Kyei sports complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nations55%
×Draw29%
Hohoe United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nations
1.29
Hohoe United
0.55

Nations creates 135% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nations
1.43
Hohoe United
0.54

allows per match

Nations
0.57
Hohoe United
1.15

finishing

Nations+0.00on par
Hohoe United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Hohoe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nations or draw
84%
Nations or Hohoe United
71%
Draw or Hohoe United
45%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+
26%
Hohoe United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals
72%
Nations 2+ goals
37%
Nations 3+ goals
14%
Hohoe United 1+ goals
42%
Hohoe United 2+ goals
11%
Hohoe United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)
78%
Hohoe United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Hohoe United away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Hohoe United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hohoe United attack 0.54 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nations scores more
55%
level
29%
Hohoe United scores more
16%

Nations at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nations 1–1 Hohoe United

Nations and Hohoe United drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Kwame Kyei sports complex in Abrankese.