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Nations vs Basake Holy Stars — Premier League 2019

Nations
Nations
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
4/12/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Kwame Kyei sports complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nations64%
×Draw24%
Basake Holy Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nations
1.59
Basake Holy Stars
0.51

Nations creates 212% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Nations
1.43
Basake Holy Stars
0.45

allows per match

Nations
0.57
Basake Holy Stars
1.76

finishing

Nations+0.00on par
Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nations ↓

Basake Holy Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nations or draw
88%
Nations or Basake Holy Stars
76%
Draw or Basake Holy Stars
36%

Winning margin

Nations wins by 2+
35%
Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nations 1+ goals
80%
Nations 2+ goals
47%
Nations 3+ goals
21%
Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
40%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
9%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nations (draw refunded)
85%
Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nations at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 51 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nations attack 1.43 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Nations defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nations scores more
64%
level
24%
Basake Holy Stars scores more
12%

Nations at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nations will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nations vs Basake Holy Stars

Nations beat Basake Holy Stars 2-0 in Premier League on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Kwame Kyei sports complex in Abrankese.