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National Bank of Egypt vs Smouha SC — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Smouha SC
Smouha SC
2/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

National Bank of Egypt39%
×Draw28%
Smouha SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.21
Smouha SC
1.10

National Bank of Egypt creates 10% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 127 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
Smouha SC
1.02

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
Smouha SC
1.17

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
Smouha SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

Smouha SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
67%
National Bank of Egypt or Smouha SC
72%
Draw or Smouha SC
61%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
17%
Smouha SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
70%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
34%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
12%
Smouha SC 1+ goals
67%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
30%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
54%
Smouha SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

Smouha SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + Smouha SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Smouha SC attack 1.02 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
39%
level
28%
Smouha SC scores more
33%

National Bank of Egypt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: National Bank of Egypt vs Smouha SC

National Bank of Egypt and Smouha SC drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.