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National Bank of Egypt vs Misr EL Makasa — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
3/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

National Bank of Egypt43%
×Draw28%
Misr EL Makasa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.31
Misr EL Makasa
1.03

National Bank of Egypt creates 27% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 68 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
Misr EL Makasa
0.87

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
Misr EL Makasa
1.37

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

Misr EL Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
71%
National Bank of Egypt or Misr EL Makasa
72%
Draw or Misr EL Makasa
57%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
20%
Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
73%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
38%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
14%
Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
64%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
28%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
59%
Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.87 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
43%
level
28%
Misr EL Makasa scores more
29%

National Bank of Egypt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: National Bank of Egypt 1–0 Misr EL Makasa

National Bank of Egypt beat Misr EL Makasa 1-0 in Premier League on March 7, 2022.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.