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National Bank of Egypt vs Ismaily SC — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
5/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

National Bank of Egypt42%
×Draw29%
Ismaily SC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.22
Ismaily SC
0.98

National Bank of Egypt creates 24% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 134 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
Ismaily SC
0.78

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
Ismaily SC
1.18

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

Ismaily SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
70%
National Bank of Egypt or Ismaily SC
71%
Draw or Ismaily SC
58%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
18%
Ismaily SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
70%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
34%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
12%
Ismaily SC 1+ goals
62%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
26%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
58%
Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + Ismaily SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ismaily SC attack 0.78 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
42%
level
29%
Ismaily SC scores more
30%

National Bank of Egypt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: National Bank of Egypt vs Ismaily SC

National Bank of Egypt and Ismaily SC drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.