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National Bank of Egypt vs El Sharqia Dokhan — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
El Sharqia Dokhan
El Sharqia Dokhan
4/26/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

National Bank of Egypt42%
×Draw27%
El Sharqia Dokhan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.33
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.09

National Bank of Egypt creates 22% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.00

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.41

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
El Sharqia Dokhan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

El Sharqia Dokhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
69%
National Bank of Egypt or El Sharqia Dokhan
73%
Draw or El Sharqia Dokhan
58%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
19%
El Sharqia Dokhan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
74%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
38%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
15%
El Sharqia Dokhan 1+ goals
66%
El Sharqia Dokhan 2+ goals
30%
El Sharqia Dokhan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
58%
El Sharqia Dokhan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

El Sharqia Dokhan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + El Sharqia Dokhan defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

El Sharqia Dokhan attack 1.00 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
42%
level
27%
El Sharqia Dokhan scores more
31%

National Bank of Egypt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: National Bank of Egypt 2–1 El Sharqia Dokhan

National Bank of Egypt beat El Sharqia Dokhan 2-1 in Premier League on April 26, 2022.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.