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National Bank of Egypt vs El Entag EL Harby — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Entag EL Harby
El Entag EL Harby
12/21/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Al-Shorta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

National Bank of Egypt41%
×Draw27%
El Entag EL Harby32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.35
El Entag EL Harby
1.17

National Bank of Egypt creates 15% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
El Entag EL Harby
1.14

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
El Entag EL Harby
1.45

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
El Entag EL Harby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

El Entag EL Harby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
68%
National Bank of Egypt or El Entag EL Harby
73%
Draw or El Entag EL Harby
59%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
19%
El Entag EL Harby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
74%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
39%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
15%
El Entag EL Harby 1+ goals
69%
El Entag EL Harby 2+ goals
33%
El Entag EL Harby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
56%
El Entag EL Harby (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

El Entag EL Harby away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + El Entag EL Harby defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

El Entag EL Harby attack 1.14 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
41%
level
27%
El Entag EL Harby scores more
32%

National Bank of Egypt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: National Bank of Egypt vs El Entag EL Harby

National Bank of Egypt beat El Entag EL Harby 3-0 in Premier League on December 21, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Shorta Stadium in Cairo.