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National Bank of Egypt vs El Dakhleya — Premier League 2018

National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Dakhleya
El Dakhleya
4/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

National Bank of Egypt45%
×Draw27%
El Dakhleya28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

National Bank of Egypt
1.39
El Dakhleya
1.03

National Bank of Egypt creates 35% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.26
El Dakhleya
0.88

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt
1.19
El Dakhleya
1.51

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par
El Dakhleya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

El Dakhleya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw
72%
National Bank of Egypt or El Dakhleya
73%
Draw or El Dakhleya
55%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
22%
El Dakhleya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
75%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
40%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
16%
El Dakhleya 1+ goals
64%
El Dakhleya 2+ goals
28%
El Dakhleya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
62%
El Dakhleya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

El Dakhleya away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + El Dakhleya defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

El Dakhleya attack 0.88 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more
45%
level
27%
El Dakhleya scores more
28%

National Bank of Egypt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: National Bank of Egypt 1–0 El Dakhleya

National Bank of Egypt beat El Dakhleya 1-0 in Premier League on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.