National Bank of Egypt 0–0 Al Ahly: Result & Stats

National Bank of Egypt

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahly

12/1/2024

Premier League · Round 4WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

National Bank of Egypt25%

×Draw26%

Al Ahly49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

National Bank of EgyptExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.48

National Bank of Egypt

0.98

Al Ahly

1.48

Al Ahly creates 51% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 128 away

1.26

creates per match

1.78

1.19

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

National Bank of Egypt

1.26

Al Ahly

1.78

allows per match

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

Al Ahly

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

National Bank of Egypt ↓

Al Ahly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

National Bank of Egypt or draw

51%

National Bank of Egypt or Al Ahly

74%

Draw or Al Ahly

75%

Winning margin

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+

9%

Al Ahly wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals

62%

National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals

26%

National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals

8%

Al Ahly 1+ goals

77%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

43%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)

34%

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

National Bank of Egypt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.71 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.26 + Al Ahly defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al Ahly attack 1.78 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

National Bank of Egypt scores more

25%

level

26%

Al Ahly scores more

49%

Al Ahly at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: National Bank of Egypt 0–0 Al Ahly

National Bank of Egypt and Al Ahly drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.

National Bank of Egypt vs Al Ahly — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premier League: National Bank of Egypt 0–0 Al Ahly