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Naters vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Naters
Naters
FT
4 – 0
Thun II
Thun II
9/18/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Sportanlage Stapfen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Naters44%
×Draw23%
Thun II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naters
1.77
Thun II
1.49

Naters creates 19% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 13 away

creates per match

Naters
1.77
Thun II
1.54

allows per match

Naters
1.44
Thun II
1.77

finishing

Naters+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naters ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Naters or draw
67%
Naters or Thun II
77%
Draw or Thun II
56%

Winning margin

Naters wins by 2+
24%
Thun II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naters 1+ goals
83%
Naters 2+ goals
53%
Naters 3+ goals
26%
Thun II 1+ goals
77%
Thun II 2+ goals
44%
Thun II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Naters (draw refunded)
58%
Thun II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naters at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naters attack 1.77 + Thun II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Thun II attack 1.54 + Naters defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Naters scores more
44%
level
23%
Thun II scores more
33%

Naters at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Naters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naters vs Thun II

Naters beat Thun II 4-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Stapfen in Naters.