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Naters vs Azzurri 90 — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Naters
Naters
CANC
00:00
Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
3/7/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Sportanlage Stapfen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Naters61%
×Draw21%
Azzurri 9018%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naters
2.06
Azzurri 90
1.04

Naters creates 98% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 14 away

creates per match

Naters
1.77
Azzurri 90
0.64

allows per match

Naters
1.44
Azzurri 90
2.36

finishing

Naters+0.00on par
Azzurri 90+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naters ↓

Azzurri 90 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Naters or draw
82%
Naters or Azzurri 90
79%
Draw or Azzurri 90
39%

Winning margin

Naters wins by 2+
37%
Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Naters 1+ goals
87%
Naters 2+ goals
61%
Naters 3+ goals
34%
Azzurri 90 1+ goals
65%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
28%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Naters (draw refunded)
77%
Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naters at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

Azzurri 90 away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naters attack 1.77 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Azzurri 90 attack 0.64 + Naters defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Naters scores more
61%
level
21%
Azzurri 90 scores more
18%

Naters at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Naters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Naters face Azzurri 90 (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 returns with Naters hosting Azzurri 90. Match starts March 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Naters host Azzurri 90 at Sportanlage Stapfen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.