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Nassaji Mazandaran vs ZOB Ahan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
11/12/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran34%
×Draw31%
ZOB Ahan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nassaji Mazandaran
0.97
ZOB Ahan
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 116 away

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
0.87
ZOB Ahan
0.91

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
1.05
ZOB Ahan
1.07

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw
65%
Nassaji Mazandaran or ZOB Ahan
69%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
66%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
13%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
62%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
25%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
7%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
62%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
26%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
50%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
34%
level
31%
ZOB Ahan scores more
35%

ZOB Ahan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nassaji Mazandaran vs ZOB Ahan

ZOB Ahan beat Nassaji Mazandaran 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Vatani Stadium in Ghaemshahr.