Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin

Nassaji Mazandaran

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shams Azar Qazvin

2/28/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran35%

×Draw32%

Shams Azar Qazvin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nassaji MazandaranExpected goals in this matchShams Azar Qazvin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.92

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.97

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 41 away

0.87

creates per match

0.78

1.05

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.87

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.78

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.05

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw

67%

Nassaji Mazandaran or Shams Azar Qazvin

68%

Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin

65%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

13%

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

62%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

25%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

7%

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

60%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

23%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

52%

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.78 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

35%

level

32%

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

33%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff