Nassaji Mazandaran 3–1 Sanat Naft: Result & Stats

Nassaji Mazandaran

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sanat Naft

8/29/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 4Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran39%

×Draw32%

Sanat Naft30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nassaji MazandaranExpected goals in this matchSanat Naft

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.87

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.04

Sanat Naft

0.87

Nassaji Mazandaran creates 20% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 91 away

0.87

creates per match

0.69

1.05

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.87

Sanat Naft

0.69

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.05

Sanat Naft

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Sanat Naft →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw

70%

Nassaji Mazandaran or Sanat Naft

68%

Draw or Sanat Naft

61%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

15%

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

65%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

28%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

9%

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

58%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

22%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

57%

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

39%

level

32%

Sanat Naft scores more

30%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff