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Nassaji Mazandaran vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
10/4/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran43%
×Draw31%
Machine Sazi FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nassaji Mazandaran
1.14
Machine Sazi FC
0.84

Nassaji Mazandaran creates 36% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
0.87
Machine Sazi FC
0.64

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
1.05
Machine Sazi FC
1.40

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw
73%
Nassaji Mazandaran or Machine Sazi FC
69%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
57%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
18%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
68%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
32%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
11%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
57%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
21%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
61%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
43%
level
31%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
27%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nassaji Mazandaran vs Machine Sazi FC

Nassaji Mazandaran and Machine Sazi FC drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 4, 2019.

The match was played at Vatani Stadium in Ghaemshahr.