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Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
1/27/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran36%
×Draw33%
Aluminium Arak32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nassaji Mazandaran
0.95
Aluminium Arak
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 86 away

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
0.87
Aluminium Arak
0.71

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran
1.05
Aluminium Arak
1.02

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw
68%
Nassaji Mazandaran or Aluminium Arak
67%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
64%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
13%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
61%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
25%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
7%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
59%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
22%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
53%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
36%
level
33%
Aluminium Arak scores more
32%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Nassaji Mazandaran 1–2 Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Nassaji Mazandaran 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 27, 2025.

The match was played at Vatani Stadium in Ghaemshahr.