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NAŠK Našice vs Dakovo-Croatia — League #217 2026

NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
FT
2 – 2
Dakovo-Croatia
Dakovo-Croatia
3/4/2023League #217League #217 · East - 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

NAŠK Našice33%
×Draw22%
Dakovo-Croatia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAŠK Našice
1.63
Dakovo-Croatia
1.95

Dakovo-Croatia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

creates per match

NAŠK Našice
1.25
Dakovo-Croatia
2.60

allows per match

NAŠK Našice
1.29
Dakovo-Croatia
2.00

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par
Dakovo-Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Dakovo-Croatia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw
55%
NAŠK Našice or Dakovo-Croatia
78%
Draw or Dakovo-Croatia
67%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
16%
Dakovo-Croatia wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
80%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
48%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
22%
Dakovo-Croatia 1+ goals
86%
Dakovo-Croatia 2+ goals
58%
Dakovo-Croatia 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
42%
Dakovo-Croatia (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Dakovo-Croatia away — creates 2.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.25 + Dakovo-Croatia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dakovo-Croatia attack 2.60 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more
33%
level
22%
Dakovo-Croatia scores more
45%

Dakovo-Croatia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dakovo-Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NAŠK Našice vs Dakovo-Croatia

NAŠK Našice and Dakovo-Croatia drew 2-2 in League #217 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Našice.