NAŠK Našice 1–1 Bedem Ivankovo: Result & Stats

NAŠK Našice

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bedem Ivankovo

4/26/2025

League #217 · East - 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

NAŠK Našice44%

×Draw25%

Bedem Ivankovo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAŠK NašiceExpected goals in this matchBedem Ivankovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

NAŠK Našice

1.52

Bedem Ivankovo

1.25

NAŠK Našice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

1.29

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

NAŠK Našice

1.25

Bedem Ivankovo

1.20

allows per match

NAŠK Našice

1.29

Bedem Ivankovo

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Bedem Ivankovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Bedem Ivankovo →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw

69%

NAŠK Našice or Bedem Ivankovo

75%

Draw or Bedem Ivankovo

56%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+

22%

Bedem Ivankovo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals

78%

NAŠK Našice 2+ goals

45%

NAŠK Našice 3+ goals

20%

Bedem Ivankovo 1+ goals

71%

Bedem Ivankovo 2+ goals

36%

Bedem Ivankovo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)

58%

Bedem Ivankovo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Bedem Ivankovo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.25 + Bedem Ivankovo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bedem Ivankovo attack 1.20 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more

44%

level

25%

Bedem Ivankovo scores more

31%

NAŠK Našice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NAŠK Našice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff