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Nashville vs Richmond Kickers — USL Championship 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
8/29/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 43First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nashville70%
×Draw18%
Richmond Kickers12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
2.19
Richmond Kickers
0.76

Nashville creates 188% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nashville
1.67
Richmond Kickers
0.76

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Richmond Kickers
2.71

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Richmond Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
88%
Nashville or Richmond Kickers
82%
Draw or Richmond Kickers
30%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
46%
Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
89%
Nashville 2+ goals
64%
Nashville 3+ goals
37%
Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
53%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
18%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
86%
Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Richmond Kickers away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Richmond Kickers defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Richmond Kickers attack 0.76 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Nashville scores more
70%
level
18%
Richmond Kickers scores more
12%

Nashville at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Nashville 4–0 Richmond Kickers

Nashville beat Richmond Kickers 4-0 in USL Championship on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee).