Nashville 0–0 Philadelphia Union II: Result & Stats

Nashville

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Philadelphia Union II

8/11/2019

USL Championship · Round 41First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville58%

×Draw22%

Philadelphia Union II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NashvilleExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.02

Nashville

1.93

Philadelphia Union II

1.02

Nashville creates 89% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

1.67

creates per match

1.30

0.75

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Nashville

1.67

Philadelphia Union II

1.30

allows per match

Nashville

0.75

Philadelphia Union II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Philadelphia Union II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nashville or draw

80%

Nashville or Philadelphia Union II

78%

Draw or Philadelphia Union II

42%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+

34%

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals

85%

Nashville 2+ goals

57%

Nashville 3+ goals

30%

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

64%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

27%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)

75%

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.93

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nashville scores more

58%

level

22%

Philadelphia Union II scores more

20%

Nashville at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff