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Nashville vs Memphis 901 — USL Championship 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Memphis 901
Memphis 901
4/14/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 11First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville49%
×Draw25%
Memphis 90125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
1.58
Memphis 901
1.06

Nashville creates 49% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 93 away

creates per match

Nashville
1.67
Memphis 901
1.37

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Memphis 901
1.49

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Memphis 901+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Memphis 901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
75%
Nashville or Memphis 901
75%
Draw or Memphis 901
51%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
26%
Memphis 901 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
79%
Nashville 2+ goals
47%
Nashville 3+ goals
21%
Memphis 901 1+ goals
65%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
29%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
66%
Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Memphis 901 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Memphis 901 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Memphis 901 attack 1.37 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nashville scores more
49%
level
25%
Memphis 901 scores more
25%

Nashville at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nashville vs Memphis 901

Nashville beat Memphis 901 2-0 in USL Championship on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee).