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Nashville vs Colorado Rapids — US Open Cup 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
6/7/2018US Open CupUS Open Cup · 4th RoundVanderbilt Stadium (Nashville, TN)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nashville61%
×Draw20%
Colorado Rapids20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
2.25
Colorado Rapids
1.21

Nashville creates 86% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nashville
2.50
Colorado Rapids
1.67

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Colorado Rapids
2.00

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Colorado Rapids+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Colorado Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
80%
Nashville or Colorado Rapids
80%
Draw or Colorado Rapids
39%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
38%
Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
89%
Nashville 2+ goals
65%
Nashville 3+ goals
39%
Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
70%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
34%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
75%
Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Colorado Rapids away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 2.50 + Colorado Rapids defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Colorado Rapids attack 1.67 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nashville scores more
61%
level
20%
Colorado Rapids scores more
20%

Nashville at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Nashville 2–0 Colorado Rapids

Nashville beat Colorado Rapids 2-0 in US Open Cup on June 7, 2018.

The match was played at Vanderbilt Stadium (Nashville, TN).