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Nashville SC vs Los Angeles FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Nashville SC
Nashville SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC
4/23/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 13GEODIS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Nashville SC37%
×Draw26%
Los Angeles FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville SC
1.35
Los Angeles FC
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nashville SC
1.40
Los Angeles FC
1.59

allows per match

Nashville SC
1.14
Los Angeles FC
1.31

finishing

Nashville SC+0.66scores more
Los Angeles FC+0.20scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville SC ↓

Los Angeles FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nashville SC or draw
63%
Nashville SC or Los Angeles FC
74%
Draw or Los Angeles FC
63%

Winning margin

Nashville SC wins by 2+
17%
Los Angeles FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nashville SC 1+ goals
74%
Nashville SC 2+ goals
39%
Nashville SC 3+ goals
15%
Los Angeles FC 1+ goals
74%
Los Angeles FC 2+ goals
39%
Los Angeles FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nashville SC (draw refunded)
50%
Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 16 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville SC attack 1.40 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Los Angeles FC attack 1.59 + Nashville SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nashville SC scores more
37%
level
26%
Los Angeles FC scores more
37%

Nashville SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nashville SC 1 – 1 Los Angeles FC

Nashville SC and Los Angeles FC drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at GEODIS Park in Nashville, Tennessee.