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Nasarawa United vs Yobe Stars — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
1 – 0
Yobe Stars
Yobe Stars
2/20/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 10Lafia Township Stadium (Lafia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nasarawa United64%
×Draw25%
Yobe Stars11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.56
Yobe Stars
0.47

Nasarawa United creates 232% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
Yobe Stars
0.27

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
Yobe Stars
1.55

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Yobe Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
89%
Nasarawa United or Yobe Stars
75%
Draw or Yobe Stars
36%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
35%
Yobe Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
79%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
46%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
21%
Yobe Stars 1+ goals
37%
Yobe Stars 2+ goals
8%
Yobe Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
86%
Yobe Stars (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Yobe Stars defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Yobe Stars attack 0.27 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
64%
level
25%
Yobe Stars scores more
11%

Nasarawa United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasarawa United vs Yobe Stars

Nasarawa United beat Yobe Stars 1-0 in NPFL on February 20, 2019.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium (Lafia).