Nasarawa United 3–2 Plateau United: Result & Stats

Nasarawa United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Plateau United

4/13/2025

NPFL · Round 33Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Nasarawa United57%

×Draw26%

Plateau United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nasarawa UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlateau United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.66

Nasarawa United

1.48

Plateau United

0.66

Nasarawa United creates 124% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 127 away

1.57

creates per match

0.65

0.66

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Nasarawa United

1.57

Plateau United

0.65

allows per match

Nasarawa United

0.66

Plateau United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Plateau United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw

83%

Nasarawa United or Plateau United

74%

Draw or Plateau United

43%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+

30%

Plateau United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals

77%

Nasarawa United 2+ goals

43%

Nasarawa United 3+ goals

19%

Plateau United 1+ goals

48%

Plateau United 2+ goals

14%

Plateau United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)

77%

Plateau United (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nasarawa United scores more

57%

level

26%

Plateau United scores more

17%

Nasarawa United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff