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Nasarawa United vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MFM
MFM
7/18/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 33Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Nasarawa United60%
×Draw26%
MFM14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.49
MFM
0.57

Nasarawa United creates 161% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 61 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
MFM
1.41

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
86%
Nasarawa United or MFM
74%
Draw or MFM
40%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
31%
MFM wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
77%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
44%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
19%
MFM 1+ goals
43%
MFM 2+ goals
11%
MFM 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
81%
MFM (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

MFM attack 0.49 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
60%
level
26%
MFM scores more
14%

Nasarawa United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasarawa United vs MFM

Nasarawa United beat MFM 1-0 in NPFL on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.