Nasarawa United 0–1 Kun Khalifat FC: Result & Stats

Nasarawa United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kun Khalifat FC

4/5/2026

NPFL · Round 33Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nasarawa United54%

×Draw27%

Kun Khalifat FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nasarawa UnitedExpected goals in this matchKun Khalifat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.74

Nasarawa United

1.43

Kun Khalifat FC

0.74

Nasarawa United creates 93% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 18 away

1.57

creates per match

0.83

0.66

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Nasarawa United

1.57

Kun Khalifat FC

0.83

allows per match

Nasarawa United

0.66

Kun Khalifat FC

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Kun Khalifat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw

81%

Nasarawa United or Kun Khalifat FC

73%

Draw or Kun Khalifat FC

46%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+

27%

Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals

76%

Nasarawa United 2+ goals

42%

Nasarawa United 3+ goals

17%

Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals

52%

Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals

17%

Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)

73%

Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Kun Khalifat FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kun Khalifat FC attack 0.83 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nasarawa United scores more

54%

level

27%

Kun Khalifat FC scores more

19%

Nasarawa United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff