Nasarawa United vs Katsina United — NPFL 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 109+ matches
Nasarawa United64%
Katsina United11%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nasarawa United creates 228% more chances
Season form · 109 home / 118 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No71
- Yes29
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nasarawa United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches
Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54
Katsina United attack 0.29 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.47
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
Nasarawa United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Enugu Rangers
Rivers United
Shooting Stars
Ikorodu City
Bendel InsuranceNasarawa United
Abia Warriors
Barau FCKatsina United
Kano Pillars
Plateau United
Kwara United
Enyimba
Kun Khalifat FC
Warri Wolves
Niger Tornadoes
Remo Stars
El Kanemi Warriors
Bayelsa United
Wikki TouristIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Nasarawa United host Katsina United on Saturday, 25 January 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the NPFL 2019/2020 season.
NPFL: Nasarawa United 1–0 Katsina United
Nasarawa United beat Katsina United 1-0 in NPFL on January 25, 2025.
The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.