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Nasarawa United vs Ikorodu City — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
3/8/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 29Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nasarawa United58%
×Draw26%
Ikorodu City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.54
Ikorodu City
0.67

Nasarawa United creates 130% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 38 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
Ikorodu City
0.68

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
Ikorodu City
1.50

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Ikorodu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
84%
Nasarawa United or Ikorodu City
74%
Draw or Ikorodu City
42%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
31%
Ikorodu City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
79%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
45%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
20%
Ikorodu City 1+ goals
49%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
15%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
78%
Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
58%
level
26%
Ikorodu City scores more
16%

Nasarawa United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Nasarawa United 1–0 Ikorodu City

Nasarawa United beat Ikorodu City 1-0 in NPFL on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.