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Nasarawa United vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
3/21/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 30Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Nasarawa United53%
×Draw28%
Enugu Rangers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.35
Enugu Rangers
0.69

Nasarawa United creates 96% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 130 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
81%
Nasarawa United or Enugu Rangers
72%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
47%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
26%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
74%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
39%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
15%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
50%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
15%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
73%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
53%
level
28%
Enugu Rangers scores more
19%

Nasarawa United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Nasarawa United 1–0 Enugu Rangers

Nasarawa United beat Enugu Rangers 1-0 in NPFL on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.