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Nasarawa United vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
E. Anaekwe 37'
5/30/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 24Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nasarawa United74%
×Draw19%
Adamawa United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasarawa United
1.96
Adamawa United
0.45

Nasarawa United creates 336% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 31 away

creates per match

Nasarawa United
1.57
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Nasarawa United
0.66
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Nasarawa United+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasarawa United ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nasarawa United or draw
92%
Nasarawa United or Adamawa United
81%
Draw or Adamawa United
26%

Winning margin

Nasarawa United wins by 2+
47%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nasarawa United 1+ goals
86%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
58%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
31%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
36%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
8%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
91%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasarawa United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasarawa United attack 1.57 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.96

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Nasarawa United defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nasarawa United scores more
74%
level
19%
Adamawa United scores more
8%

Nasarawa United at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Nasarawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
E. Anaekwe
50'
M. Owolijah
61'
72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasarawa United vs Adamawa United

Nasarawa United beat Adamawa United 1-0 in NPFL on May 30, 2021.

Goals: E. Anaekwe (37').

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.