Nasaf W 0–1 Bam Khatoon W: Result & Stats

Nasaf W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bam Khatoon W

11/20/2025

AFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 2Hankou Cultural Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nasaf W47%

×Draw27%

Bam Khatoon W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nasaf WExpected goals in this matchBam Khatoon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.00

Nasaf W

1.42

Bam Khatoon W

1.00

Nasaf W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nasaf W

1.33

Bam Khatoon W

1.00

allows per match

Nasaf W

1.00

Bam Khatoon W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasaf W+0.00on par

Bam Khatoon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf W ↓

Bam Khatoon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nasaf W or draw

73%

Nasaf W or Bam Khatoon W

73%

Draw or Bam Khatoon W

53%

Winning margin

Nasaf W wins by 2+

23%

Bam Khatoon W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nasaf W 1+ goals

76%

Nasaf W 2+ goals

41%

Nasaf W 3+ goals

17%

Bam Khatoon W 1+ goals

63%

Bam Khatoon W 2+ goals

26%

Bam Khatoon W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nasaf W (draw refunded)

64%

Bam Khatoon W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bam Khatoon W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf W attack 1.33 + Bam Khatoon W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bam Khatoon W attack 1.00 + Nasaf W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nasaf W scores more

47%

level

27%

Bam Khatoon W scores more

27%

Nasaf W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nasaf W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff