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Nasaf vs Warriors — AFC Cup 2018

Nasaf
Nasaf
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Warriors
Warriors
10/20/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal FinalsMarkaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nasaf58%
×Draw20%
Warriors23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
2.35
Warriors
1.42

Nasaf creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nasaf
2.71
Warriors
1.83

allows per match

Nasaf
1.00
Warriors
2.00

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
77%
Nasaf or Warriors
80%
Draw or Warriors
42%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
36%
Warriors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
90%
Nasaf 2+ goals
68%
Nasaf 3+ goals
41%
Warriors 1+ goals
76%
Warriors 2+ goals
41%
Warriors 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
72%
Warriors (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Warriors away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 2.71 + Warriors defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Warriors attack 1.83 + Nasaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nasaf scores more
58%
level
20%
Warriors scores more
23%

Nasaf at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasaf vs Warriors

Nasaf and Warriors drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Karshi.