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Nasaf vs Turan — Super League 2026

Nasaf
Nasaf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Turan
Turan
3/12/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nasaf64%
×Draw23%
Turan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.75
Turan
0.64

Nasaf creates 173% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nasaf
1.64
Turan
0.62

allows per match

Nasaf
0.65
Turan
1.85

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Turan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
87%
Nasaf or Turan
77%
Draw or Turan
36%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
37%
Turan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
83%
Nasaf 2+ goals
52%
Nasaf 3+ goals
25%
Turan 1+ goals
47%
Turan 2+ goals
14%
Turan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
83%
Turan (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.65 · 99 matches

Turan away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.64 + Turan defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Turan attack 0.62 + Nasaf defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nasaf scores more
64%
level
23%
Turan scores more
13%

Nasaf at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasaf 2 – 1 Turan

Nasaf beat Turan 2-1 in Super League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Qarshi.