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Nasaf vs Tractor Sazi — AFC Champions League 2018

Nasaf
Nasaf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
11/24/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase West - 5Markaziy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nasaf40%
×Draw28%
Tractor Sazi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.22
Tractor Sazi
1.07

Nasaf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nasaf
1.53
Tractor Sazi
1.27

allows per match

Nasaf
0.87
Tractor Sazi
0.91

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
68%
Nasaf or Tractor Sazi
72%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
60%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
17%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
70%
Nasaf 2+ goals
34%
Nasaf 3+ goals
12%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
66%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
29%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
55%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.53 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tractor Sazi attack 1.27 + Nasaf defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nasaf scores more
40%
level
28%
Tractor Sazi scores more
32%

Nasaf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Nasaf 0–1 Tractor Sazi

Tractor Sazi beat Nasaf 1-0 in AFC Champions League on November 24, 2025.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadium in Qarshi.