Nasaf 0–0 Persepolis FC: Result & Stats

Nasaf

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Persepolis FC

4/2/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Markaziy Stadium Qarshi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nasaf49%

×Draw27%

Persepolis FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NasafExpected goals in this matchPersepolis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.89

Nasaf

1.39

Persepolis FC

0.89

Nasaf creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.53

creates per match

0.89

0.88

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Nasaf

1.53

Persepolis FC

0.89

allows per match

Nasaf

0.88

Persepolis FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par

Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Persepolis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw

76%

Nasaf or Persepolis FC

73%

Draw or Persepolis FC

51%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+

23%

Persepolis FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals

75%

Nasaf 2+ goals

40%

Nasaf 3+ goals

16%

Persepolis FC 1+ goals

59%

Persepolis FC 2+ goals

22%

Persepolis FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)

67%

Persepolis FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.53 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nasaf scores more

49%

level

27%

Persepolis FC scores more

24%

Nasaf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Ansari

Persepolis FC · D

7.9

Match Events

62'

D. Ćeran← I. Kenjabaev

69'

A. Nourollahi← S. Nemati

76'

Azizjon Ganiev

78'

D. Narzullaev← A. Ganiev

83'

Mohsen Rabikhah

86'

A. Mosleh← V. Amiri

87'

S. Mukhiddinov← J. O. Hasanov

90'

Ahmad Nourollahi

90+2'

Bashar Rasan← A. Alipour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NasafPersepolis

Overview

52%Possession48%

4Total Shots14

2Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots14

2On Target6

2Off Target4

0Blocked4

1Inside Box5

3Outside Box9

Passing

52%Possession48%

475Total Passes421

358Accurate Passes304

75%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2