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Nasaf vs Kokand-1912 — Super League 2026

Nasaf
Nasaf
Preview
15:00
Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
8/8/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Markaziy Stadium
Big match
57%
Nasaf
model favours
57%25%18%

Kokand-1912 win just 9% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Nasaf57%
×Draw25%
Kokand-191218%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.60
Kokand-1912
0.77

Nasaf creates 108% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 72 away

creates per match

Nasaf
1.62
Kokand-1912
0.88

allows per match

Nasaf
0.65
Kokand-1912
1.58

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Kokand-1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
82%
Nasaf or Kokand-1912
75%
Draw or Kokand-1912
43%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
31%
Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
80%
Nasaf 2+ goals
47%
Nasaf 3+ goals
22%
Kokand-1912 1+ goals
54%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
18%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
76%
Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.65 · 98 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.62 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Nasaf defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nasaf scores more
57%
level
25%
Kokand-1912 scores more
18%

Nasaf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nasaf have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nasaf
DWDDL
Kokand-1912
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasaf face Kokand-1912 (Super League)

Super League returns with Nasaf hosting Kokand-1912. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nasaf host Kokand-1912 at Markaziy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.