Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kokand-1912 vs Nasaf — Super League 2025

Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nasaf
Nasaf
5/17/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kokand-191229%
×Draw26%
Nasaf45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kokand-1912
1.11
Nasaf
1.44

Nasaf creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kokand-1912
1.09
Nasaf
1.74

allows per match

Kokand-1912
1.13
Nasaf
1.13

finishing

Kokand-1912+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kokand-1912 ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kokand-1912 or draw
55%
Kokand-1912 or Nasaf
74%
Draw or Nasaf
71%

Winning margin

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
11%
Nasaf wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kokand-1912 1+ goals
67%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
30%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
10%
Nasaf 1+ goals
76%
Nasaf 2+ goals
42%
Nasaf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
40%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kokand-1912 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kokand-1912 attack 1.09 + Nasaf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nasaf attack 1.74 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kokand-1912 scores more
29%
level
26%
Nasaf scores more
45%

Nasaf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kokand-1912 0–2 Nasaf

Nasaf beat Kokand-1912 2-0 in Super League on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Kokand.